I always thought that engineer’s aided the workforce by developing new products
that put people to work. After all, the invention of the transistor put
millions to work and new technology aided the growth of the computer,
automotive, and aircraft industries.
In the 21st century
the situation may be reversed with too much technology causing a
decrease in jobs. At least that’s the opinion of Carl Benedikt Frey and
Michael A. Osborne of the University of Oxford in the U.K. These are
people with the appropriate credentials. Frey is with the “Programme on
the impacts of Future Technology,” and Osborne is in the Department of
Engineering Science at Oxford. They highlighted only one aspect of
increased technology: computerization, and it is a major consideration.
A
September 2013 paper by Frey and Osborne asks the question: “The Future
Of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs To Computerization? To answer
the question they reviewed papers from dozens of sources that covered
the subject. And, they employed a methodology to categorize occupations
according to their susceptibility to computerization. Then, they
implemented the methodology to estimate the probability of
computerization for 702 detailed occupations, and examined expected
impacts of future computerization on the US labor market.
Motivation
for the paper came from John Maynard Keynes’s frequently cited
prediction of widespread technological unemployment “due to our
discovery of means of economizing the use of labor outrunning the pace
at which we can find new uses for labor.” John Maynard Keynes was a British economist whose ideas have fundamentally affected the theory and practice of modern macroeconomics, and transformed the economic policies of governments. His ideas are the basis for the school of thought known as Keynesian economics, and its various offshoots.
Frey
and Osborne noted that “over the past decades, computers have
substituted for a number of jobs, including the functions of
bookkeepers, cashiers and telephone operators.” And, they pointed out
that “recently the poor performance of labor markets across advanced
economies has intensified the debate about technological unemployment.”
Although they said “there is ongoing disagreement about the driving
forces behind the persistently high unemployment rates, a number of
scholars have pointed to computer controlled equipment as a possible
explanation for recent jobless growth.”
“The
impact of computerization on the labor market is well-chronicled in the
literature with the decline of employment in occupations mainly
consisting of tasks following well-defined procedures that can easily be
performed by sophisticated algorithms. For example, studies emphasize
that the ongoing decline in manufacturing employment and the
disappearance of other routine jobs is causing the current low rates of
employment. Besides
the computerization of routine manufacturing tasks, studies have
documented a structural shift in the labor market, with workers
reallocating their labor supply from middle-income manufacturing to
low-income service occupations. “Arguably, this is because the manual
tasks of service occupations are less susceptible to computerization, as
they require a higher degree of flexibility and physical adaptability.
At the same time, with falling prices of computing, problem-solving
skills are becoming relatively productive, explaining the substantial
employment growth in occupations involving cognitive tasks where skilled
labor has a comparative advantage, as well as the persistent increase
in returns to education.
“According
to Brynjolfsson and McAfee (2011), the pace of technological innovation
is still increasing, with more sophisticated software technologies
disrupting labor markets by making workers redundant. What is striking
about the examples in their book is that computerization is no longer
confined to routine manufacturing tasks. The autonomous driverless cars,
developed by Google, provide one example of how manual tasks in
transport and logistics may soon be automated. In the section “In Domain
After Domain, Computers Race Ahead”, they emphasize how fast moving
these developments have been. Less than 10 years ago, in the chapter
“Why People Still Matter”, Levy and Murnane (2004) pointed at the
difficulties of replicating human perception, asserting that driving in
traffic is insusceptible to automation: “But executing a left turn
against oncoming traffic involves so many factors that it is hard to
imagine discovering the set of rules that can replicate a driver’s
behavior.” Six years later, in October 2010, Google announced that it
had modified several Toyota Priuses to be fully autonomous (Fig. 1).
Fig. 1. The Google driverless car involves developing technology for
autonomous cars. The software powering Google's cars is called Google
Chauffeur. Lettering on the side of each car identifies it as a
"self-driving car."
To
the authors’ knowledge, no study has yet quantified what recent
technological progress is likely to mean for the future of employment.
“This present study intends to bridge this gap in the literature.
Although there are indeed existing useful frameworks for examining the
impact of computers on the occupational employment composition, they
seem inadequate in explaining the impact of technological trends going
beyond the computerization of routine tasks.”
Current literature distinguishes
between cognitive and manual tasks on the one hand, and routine and
non-routine tasks on the other. “While the computer substitution for
both cognitive and manual routine tasks is evident, non-routine tasks
involve everything from legal writing, truck driving and medical
diagnoses, to persuading and selling. In the present study, we will
argue that legal writing and truck driving will soon be automated, while
persuading, for instance, will not. Fig.2 shows the ENON personal assistance robot.
Fig. 2. Enon was created to be a personal assistant. It is
self-guiding and has limited speech recognition and synthesis. It can
also carry things.
“Drawing
upon recent developments in Engineering Sciences, and in particular
advances in the fields of Data Mining, Machine Vision, Computational
Statistics and other sub-fields of Artificial Intelligence, we derive
additional dimensions required to understand the susceptibility of jobs
to computerization. Needless to say, a number of factors are driving
decisions to automate and we cannot capture these in full. Rather we
aim, from a technological capabilities point of view, to determine which
problems engineers need to solve for specific occupations to be
automated. By highlighting these problems, their difficulty and to which
occupations they relate, we categorize jobs according to their
susceptibility to computerization. The characteristics of these problems
were matched to different occupational characteristics, allowing us to
examine the future direction of technological change in terms of its
impact on the occupational composition of the labor market, but also the
number of jobs at risk should these technologies materialize.”
“While
computerization has been historically confined to routine tasks
involving explicit rule-based activities , algorithms for big data are
now rapidly entering domains reliant upon pattern recognition and can
readily substitute for labor in a wide range of non-routine cognitive
tasks. In addition, advanced robots are gaining enhanced senses and
dexterity, allowing them to perform a broader scope of manual tasks.
This is likely to change the nature of work across industries and
occupations.”
In
this paper, we ask the question: how susceptible are current jobs to
these technological developments? To assess this, we implemented a novel
methodology to estimate the probability of computerization for 702
detailed occupations. Based on these estimates, we examine expected
impacts of future computerization on labor market outcomes, with the
primary objective of analyzing the number of jobs at risk and the
relationship between an occupation’s probability of computerization,
wages and educational attainment.”
“We
distinguish between high, medium and low risk occupations, depending on
their probability of computerization. We make no attempt to estimate
the number of jobs that will actually be automated, and focus on
potential job automatability over some unspecified number of years.
According to our estimates around 47 percent of total US employment is
in the high risk category. We refer to these as jobs at risk – i.e., jobs we expect could be automated relatively soon, perhaps over the next decade or two.”
“Our
model predicts that most workers in transportation and logistics
occupations, together with the bulk of office and administrative support
workers, and labor in production occupations, are at risk. These
findings are consistent with recent technological developments
documented in the literature. More surprisingly, we find that a
substantial share of employment in service occupations, where most US
job growth has occurred over the past decades are highly susceptible to
computerization. Additional support for this finding is provided by the
recent growth in the market for service robots and the gradually
diminishment of the comparative advantage of human labor in tasks
involving mobility and dexterity.”
“Finally,
we provide evidence that wages and educational attainment exhibit a
strong negative relationship with the probability of computerization. We
note that this finding implies a discontinuity between the nineteenth,
twentieth and the twenty-first century, in the impact of capital
deepening on the relative demand for skilled labor. While nineteenth
century manufacturing technologies largely substituted for skilled labor
through the simplification of tasks, the Computer Revolution of the
twentieth century caused a hollowing-out of middle-income jobs . Our
model predicts a truncation in the current trend towards labor market
polarization, with computerization being principally confined to
low-skill and low-wage occupations. Our findings thus imply that as
technology races ahead, low-skill workers will reallocate to tasks that
are non-susceptible to computerization – i.e., tasks requiring creative
and social intelligence. For workers to win the race, however, they will
have to acquire creative and social skills.”
0 Response to "Does Technology Aid the Workforce?"
Post a Comment